MLB Postseason Model

Every remaining series simulated plate appearance by plate appearance, from the actual bracket: announced starters where they exist, each team's rotation and lineups from its recent games, each bullpen as it stands, and real reliever fatigue. Each simulation plays out the rest of October, so the odds below account for who each team would likely face next.

Bottom line

Chance to win the World Series
01 · Round by round

Odds to reach each round

02 · Next up

Next game in every series

03 · Bracket

Every series

Bars show each team's chance to win the series. Where a series is still waiting on earlier rounds, the card lists the most likely matchups instead. Select a series to see it game by game below.

04 · Game by game

Series detail

05 · How much to trust it

Track record

06 · Method

How the numbers are made